Yesterday's announcement that Arnold Schwarzenegger is entering 
the recall election is a political earthquake that not only has statewide 
but national implications. In this historic recall election, the voters of 
California have the unprecedented choice to remove a sitting Governor 
from office and possibly start a trend in American politics. Arnold's 
decision to enter the political arena is also historic because a inter-
national celebrity/movie star has the chance to immediately occupy a 
giant seat of power without having to go through a normal election 
process. 
 
But I will also suggest that Arnold's candidacy has the potential to 
change the political dynamic in this state and country should he win. 
The California Republican party has pretty much been dead since 1998. 
The Democrats have controlled the legislature and all the major statewide 
offices since that year and were thought to have a major lock in the 
state as the economy was booming and people liked the direction the 
Democrats were taking this state. 
 
During the 2000 presidential election, the Democrats solidified their hold 
on California as then Gov. Bush did not even campaign in California as 
he knew it was a lost cause and the California GOP were engaged in a 
civil war between the moderates and conservatives. The ideological 
battle between moderates and conservatives has been the one constant 
factor that led to the Republicans' demise in this state. Their inability to 
stand united has enabled the Democrats to split them and conquer them 
in elections. 
 
Now, the Republicans have a chance to resurrect themselves by using 
Arnold as their savior. Given the conservative tilt this country has taken 
and the way Bush has politically managed his presidency, California is 
up for grabs in the next presidential election. I would even go so far as to 
say that if Arnold wins the election then Bush will win California in the 
presidential election barring any major scandal or controversy. With 
Arnold in the Governor's office, and if he has the public feel that he is 
fixing the state, then Arnold can boost the GOP's fortunes in the state 
and create a path for Bush to win the state. There is a leadership 
vaccum in the Democratic party presently, there is no single effective 
challenger to President Bush or the Republican party, that is why the 
stakes are so high in this recall election. It can fundamentally change 
the political tilt of the nation for the foreseeable future. 

- August 7, 2003

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